California Electric Car Mandate Will Have "Jalopy Effect", Study Indicates

January 23, 2001

The California Air Resources Board (ARB) Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate designed to improve air quality will lead to increased pollution, a new study reveals. This unintended result of the mandate, dubbed "The Jalopy Effect," will negate any potential air quality benefits from electric vehicles, as more drivers keep older, higher-emission cars on California highways.

The ARB mandate states that, by 2003, 10 percent of new cars sold in the state must be zero or partial zero-emission vehicles. ARB has estimated that production and sale of those vehicles will cost up to $24,000 more than gasoline-powered vehicles, even though the vehicles will be only slightly cleaner than the conventional gasoline-powered vehicles in dealers' showrooms.

The costs of zero and partial-zero emission vehicles will drive up the prices of all new cars, according to a study by the National Economic Research Associates (NERA) and Sierra Research. The price jump will lead motorists to keep their older, higher-emissions vehicles longer. The end result will be higher fleetwide emissions in California. Even under the revisions proposed by the ARB Staff last month, this effect would negate the air quality benefits of electric vehicles.

"Fully half of the cars from the 1987 model year are still on the road," said David Harrison, a NERA economist. "One of the best things Californians can do to improve air quality is to replace these cars with newer vehicles. But the California ZEV mandate, by increasing the prices of new cars, will encourage people to keep the older cars on the road even longer."

The net effect of the mandate will be to increase ozone-forming air pollution by more than 2 tons per day, the NERA/Sierra study reports.

"The unintended effects of the ZEV mandate can lead to dramatically different results than intended," said Alliance President & CEO Josephine S. Cooper. "This case shows the need to clarify exactly what is at stake for air quality. Even small actions when taken by many people can have a big effect. If large numbers of Californians delay purchasing a new, cleaner motor vehicle, the adverse impact on emissions will be significant."

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