When A Step Forward Is Going Back To The Past
The New York Times
Sydney Morning Herald
April 30, 1990
THE personal computer, which has dominated the computer industry since the early 1980s, has a bizarre new competitor that could some day take away a significant share of the office market.
Some computer designers suggest that the new machine, known as an "X terminal", represents a step back to a time when office computing was dominated by dumb terminals linked to a central mainframe or minicomputer.
In recent years, personal computers have swept through corporate America and many people in the industry have said such decentralisation will be the way of the future.
Unlike the personal computer, the X terminal does not do actual computing; it is part of a computer network and the computing is done by a separate, central computer.
But like the personal computer, the X terminal allows a user to display multiple "windows", each containing a program, and is controlled with a mouse pointing device.
Also, it enables the display of sophisticated graphics like pie charts and photographic images.
The typical office terminal running off a central computer does not have such versatility.
Until now, X terminals have been manufactured principally by several small start-up companies.
But the two largest computer makers, IBM and DEC, are now introducing their own X terminal products. IBM has led the way by including an X terminal, which it has called "Xstation 120" in its recent announcement of Risc 6000 work stations.
Wall Street analysts said those companies could register overall revenue gains despite the loss in sales of some personal computers and work stations.
But other personal computer makers, including Apple Computer and Compaq, could be losers if the X terminal market grows rapidly, the analysts suggest.
On the other hand, companies that make the fastest work stations from which the X terminals can run, have been working closely with X terminal makers in an attempt to steal sales from personal computer companies.
The work station manufacturers include Sun Microsystems Inc and the MIPS Computer Co.
The X terminals have been made possible by a new style of computing known as network computing. That trend, which distributes computing power rather than centralising it in a large computer, is now the fastest-growing part of the computer business, industry analysts say.
The new devices could catch on because they cost far less than advanced personal computers and because they can be controlled from a central location, eliminating the need to manage each individually.
The machines are cheaper because they have no electromechanical parts like disk drives and because they require less computing power.
A typical X terminal will cost about $2,500, while an advanced personal computer with the same capabilities, like an IBM PS/2 Model 70, might cost$5,000 or more.
Another big selling point of X terminals is that by centralising computing, they make stealing data harder than from unsecured personal computers and reduce the threat that malicious programs, which destroy data, might be introduced.
"One of the big advantages over PC work groups is that you have centralised administration," said Ms Judy Estrin, executive vice president and a co-founder of Network Computing Devices, a Mountain View, US, start-up company that is the leading manufacturer of X terminals.
But X terminals are not universally praised.
Critics say the new machines are subject to the same kind of problems that have plagued computing in which a large central computer is host to dozens and perhaps hundreds of standard terminals.
Among those problems is the inability to easily customise the computer with personally chosen software, and a slowdown in response time when many people are using the system.
The machines have also been criticised for lacking the refinements of some personal computers and work stations that make it easier to create advanced graphics.
Both Mr Steven Jobs, president of Next Inc, and Mr William Joy, a co-founder of Sun Microsystems, have argued that the software on which the X terminals run lacks many of the powerful graphical capabilities of Display Postscript, a powerful computer graphics language developed by Adobe Systems.
But some Wall Street analysts argue that having the centralised control that is seen as a drawback by some will be greeted eagerly by corporate data processing managers who have lost power and control over office computing because of the widespread use of personal computers.
These managers control purchasing in large corporations, and that could help the market for X terminals.
While some analysts think that sales of X terminals could hurt personal computer sales, others say the X terminal is simply another step in the evolution to network computing and will be just one in a large mix of computers, each designed for a different purpose.
How quickly the market for X terminals will grow is a matter of dispute.
Dataquest, an international research firm, projects that the market will surge to $952 million in 1993 from $49 million in 1989.
But another market researcher International Data Corp, expects far less growth - to $320 million from $25 million over the same period.
The US market for personal computers came to about $28 billion in 1988, but growth has slowed and some analysts think that X terminals will hurt PC manufacturers by stealing sales of their most sophisticated and lucrative machines.
X terminals have been made possible by the widespread adoption of a software standard, known as X Windows, that was developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology with financing from IBM and Digital.
As part of a research effort called Project Athena, MIT researchers created a program that can be run on one computer while its output is displayed on another, and which also allows various applications from a variety of computers in the network to be viewed in different windows on the screen at the same time.
Such a design can be useful when a user wants to run a program that requires immense computing resources on a super computer and view the output on a desktop computer.
X Windows is also useful for word-processing applications that display text just as it would appear on paper. These programs require relatively little power for computation but more to control the screen display.
In short, an X terminal could be used in a network of computers where some users did not need the full power of a desktop computer but wanted the ease of use of windows and a mouse.
Strong growth of the market awaits the arrival of commercial software to take advantage of the X standard.
"What's holding X terminals back is the lack of software," said Mr Steve Kirsch, vice president of Frame Technology, a Californian software publisher that is one of the first companies to design software to run on X terminals.
"People are rapidly converting their software to run on X. When that happens it will mean that you can put together a station with work-station performance for a fraction of the cost."
Network Computing Devices, the leading maker of X terminals, offers two models of monochrome X terminals priced as low as $2,500 and is planning to introduce a colour display early this year.
The least expensive X terminal, selling for $995, is made by Acer Technologies, in California. It has a smaller screen and less processing power than the Network Computing models.
DEC executives say they think X terminals will benefit sales significantly
Currently some Digital computers run on one operating system and others on another. With an X terminal it will be possible for a user attached to a network of computers running both operating systems to display programs from each simultaneously.
Copyright of John Fairfax Group Pty Ltd