From: mic...@cybtrans.com (Michael Hoffman) Subject: NT will kill Unix in a year, OS war & Web revolution Date: 1996/02/25 Message-ID: <4goa2q$9n5@shellx.best.com> X-Deja-AN: 140979490 organization: cybtrans.com reply-to: mic...@cybtrans.com newsgroups: comp.os.ms-windows.nt.advocacy,comp.os.ms-windows.advocacy, comp.infosystems.www.advocacy,comp.os.linux.advocacy,comp.os.os2.advocacy, comp.os.amiga.advocacy,comp.sys.mac.advocacy,comp.unix.advocacy, comp.sys.next.advocacy Sorry if I'm excessively cross-posting here. I'm exploring the relationship between the OS war and the Web revolution. I should probably differentiate these issues into 2 or 3 threads, but they are interconnected in my mind. I hope this combination of concerns is interesting to you. If the thread explodes or wastes bandwidth, maybe someone out there can extinguish it. I am becoming a professional Web developer. I have to decide what tools to learn and what skills to develop. I'm pretty much at the start of my career, and I want to learn systems that will be relevant in the future. Currently, most Web servers run Unix. But NT and the free MS server software have been getting favorable results. If I just looked at a static snapshot of today's dominant platforms, I would say that learning the Unix environment for Web development is a much better idea than committing to an NT environment. However, looking at the *direction* that things are going, looking at the latest *trends*, I think NT has a much better future than Unix. I think that technical arguments can miss the point. Superiority of a technology does not correspond with dominance of that technology. I am confident that NT will quickly become the dominant operating system for the next few years, whether or not it is technologically superior. I think it's a better career move to align myself with NT-based Web development, than Unix-based Web development. I am facing some hard decisions now. Currently, the recommended way to write CGI scripts is to code in Perl on Unix. But I think there will be greater demand for NT-based CGI programming, over the next few years. I'm facing a similar hard choice between Java and Visual Basic Script. I am sure that I want to become a specialist in Microsoft solutions, because I like Microsoft products and they are going to become the most popular. Microsoft skills will have the greatest demand. I want to learn the most appropriate Microsoft-oriented tools and environments for Web development. I don't want to be ignorant of Unix, Perl, and Java, but I find I have to resist jumping into the Unix/Perl camp, which is currently dominant and tries to pull me in. Unix is yesterday's revolution and I'd rather minimize my involvement with it. NT is far from perfect, but the NT environment and mentality is far more up-to-date than Unix, which has its roots in the early 70s. The Unix mentality is obsolete, never mind the technical details. While Unix will live on, it will be killed in the sense of being overwhelmed by NT, as everyone in the world becomes involved in computers. The 90% of people who have not yet touched a computer will not buy into Unix; they will buy into NT. Internet terminals will shield the masses from dirtying their hands with either NT or Unix. These terminals will be served by Unix servers at first, but soon, the entire business world will switch to NT. Technical issues aside, Unix has no future; Microsoft is rapidly becoming the OS monopoly. OS/2 is completely out of the picture. Technical people might hate this trend, but based on reading the technology and business magazines and reports, NT and Microsoft are unstoppable. Whether or not this is desirable, it's happening, and I'm going along with it. _________________ Microsoft is the right balance of price, consistency, and popularity. I've always hated Apple because they were overpriced when I bought my first computer in 1988. I've always hated Unix because it's essentially an antiquated, chaotic character-mode environment with no serious GUI and poor compatibility among the zillion flavors. I've always hated OS/2 because it's made by IBM. I've always liked Windows because it's affordable and dedicated to consistency of user interface. ________________ Windows may suck in some ways technically. But technological superiority is not the driving factor for popularity. The important thing is the balance of price, popularity, and ease-of-use, as well as technically being good enough. Windows is technically good *enough*. In choosing and advocating an operating environment, find the best *balance* of: o ease-of-use o price o popularity/ubiquity o technical performance Linux or OS/2 or NextStep may be in some ways technically better than NT. Macintosh may in some ways have better ease-of-use than NT. Amiga may in some ways have better price/performance than NT (or 95). But the real deciding factor is *balance*. When you consider the *balance* of factors, Microsoft Windows and NT has trounced the others and deserves to become predominant. Technological superiority of Linux or OS/2 is merely one factor to consider. I respect technological considerations, but they are just one consideration among several. I've never had to think deeply about justifying my commitment to Windows until the opportunity to become a Web developer came along. Now I must decide whether to learn Java or Visual Basic Script, Unix or NT, and coding CGI in Perl or Basic. I concretely faced these decisions when standing in the largest bookstore in the region -- the Stanford campus bookstore, which currently has many more books about the Unix operating system than on the Windows operating system. Each substantial book costs $50. Should I buy a $50 Unix book, or a $50 NT book? A $50 Visual Basic book, or a $50 Perl&CGI book? I still am unclear about which tools and skills to master to specialize in Web development for Windows, and the problem is exploding as the entire world realigns itself around the Web. I would appreciate any insight you can give me, especially regarding Unix vs. NT trends relating to a Web development career. I hope the responses, if any, contain *substantial* insights or criticism, not just empty flames that waste everyone's time. The OS wars are being affected in several ways by the Web revolution, including the Internet terminal concept and Java, which supposedly render the OS war irrelevant. -- Michael Hoffman, EE, technical writer, Web developer, techno-trendmonger
From: pet...@netcom.com (Loren Petrich) Subject: Re: NT will kill Unix in a year, OS war & Web revolution Date: 1996/02/26 Message-ID: <petrichDnE220.Dny@netcom.com> X-Deja-AN: 141203910 sender: pet...@netcom18.netcom.com references: <4goa2q$9n5@shellx.best.com> organization: NETCOM On-line Communication Services (408 261-4700 guest) newsgroups: comp.os.ms-windows.nt.advocacy,comp.os.ms-windows.advocacy, comp.infosystems.www.advocacy,comp.os.linux.advocacy,comp.os.os2.advocacy, comp.os.amiga.advocacy,comp.sys.mac.advocacy,comp.unix.advocacy, comp.sys.next.advocacy In article <4goa2q$9...@shellx.best.com>, Michael Hoffman <mic...@cybtrans.com> wrote: >Sorry if I'm excessively cross-posting here. I'm exploring the >relationship between the OS war and the Web revolution. ... >I am becoming a professional Web developer. I have to decide what >tools to learn and what skills to develop. ... I'd recommend learning something that's just emerging, so you'll get a jump on other people. And one thing that is doing so is electronic commerce. The idea would be that one would do one's catalog-viewing, order-composing, and paying online, and thus avoid a heck of a lot of intermediaries. For that, you'll need to know about encryption (can't have fake order forms :-), and some AI at both the client (Java) and server (CGI scripts) ends. One problem here is what is the appropriate division of labor between client and server -- should the server do all the work, or should it upload a Java applet and let the client do all the work -- or anything in between. ... However, looking at the >*direction* that things are going, looking at the latest *trends*, I >think NT has a much better future than Unix. I don't think that the UNIX guys will take this lying down :-) And this argument ignores all the WWW servers running the MacOS. Yes, that fruit company's OS. I suggest that you check it out, because it is absolutely uncrackable (there was a competition to do just that, and it got no entries), and that will be vital for e-commerce. >I think that technical arguments can miss the point. Superiority of a >technology does not correspond with dominance of that technology. Ever heard of a niche market? You could do well in such a market, because you will simply have less competition. [NT vs. UNIX...] >I am facing some hard decisions now. Currently, the recommended way >to write CGI scripts is to code in Perl on Unix. But I think there >will be greater demand for NT-based CGI programming, over the next few >years. With the MacOS, one can write CGI scripts in AppleScript, which I find to be a very elegant programming language. Currently, it is rather slow, but if one uses the time span you suggest, then Apple will have released Copland (System 8), and AppleScript will be much faster. Copland will also have preemptive multitasking and protected memory, though user-interactive processes will share one memory space and will have a faked-out cooperative multitasking between them. However, file and network stuff, what are essential to WWW servers, will have both of these PM's. Copland will have the advantage over NT of less resource requirements -- unless, of course, M$ hires some *really* good programmers :-) Unless Apple commits some serious design blunder, which is unlikely, it will be at least as bulletproof as NT, and be as uncrackable as the current MacOS (System 7.5). And it will also have a superior user interface and compatibility with several years of 32-bit MacOS apps (the MacOS has been 32-bit since Day One). >I'm facing a similar hard choice between Java and Visual Basic Script. I'd go with Java, since Sun is more committed to openness than M$. Also, Java plug-ins are now more available than Visual Basic ones. Even M$ has given in and decided to go along with Java. >I am sure that I want to become a specialist in Microsoft solutions, >because I like Microsoft products and they are going to become the >most popular. Microsoft skills will have the greatest demand. If you *like* M$ products, I'm not going to deprive you of your fun, but I don't, with exceptions such as Excel. Do you know what my favorite utility for managing files on PeeCee disks is? The MacOS Finder. >Technical people might hate this trend, but based on reading the >technology and business magazines and reports, NT and Microsoft are >unstoppable. Whether or not this is desirable, it's happening, and >I'm going along with it. I wonder if the M$ guys slip the reporters some under-the-table payments :-) More seriously, M$ has remarkable gifts of self-hype; it has the ability to make itself seem like it invented practically *everything*. Apple is almost *totally* lacking in anything comparable, despite occasional flashes of brilliance such as "1984". Thus, it was reported by someone here that someone noticed a Macintosh and said that there was a computer already running Windoze95. >Microsoft is the right balance of price, consistency, and popularity. I disagree, for numerous reasons. >I've always hated Apple because they were overpriced when I bought my >first computer in 1988. Apple's repented of that disaster, happy to say. You'd be surprised at how low some Apple prices now are. Furthermore, one can now choose some Mac clones, such as those made by Power Computing. In the months to come, the PowerPC Platform (PPCP; formerly the Common Hardware Reference Platform [CHRP]) boxes will start coming out, and there will be cloners galore competing in this market. You'll be able to run Copland, any of several flavors of UNIX (AIX, Solaris, Linux, ...), and yes, WindozeNT. And multi-boot will be built in to all but el-cheapo boxes, so you can try out different OSes. And some PPCP-box makers will almost be a *LOT* better at self-hype than Apple (it's hard to do worse :-). >I've always hated Unix because it's essentially an antiquated, chaotic >character-mode environment with no serious GUI and poor compatibility >among the zillion flavors. I agree with that assessment -- I've found UNIX *very* user-hostile -- worse than other CLI OSes I've used, like VMS and even VM/CMS (I still miss VMS after all these years). >I've always hated OS/2 because it's made by IBM. I don't feel that inclined to spite IBM. >I've always liked Windows because it's affordable and dedicated to >consistency of user interface. I find DOS and Windoze to be piles of something whose mention would seriously agitate Senator Exon. The Windoze File "Manager" is so clumsy and cruddy (can't rename files by editing their names in place, to name just *ONE* example) that I often use straight DOS or that aforementioned PeeCee-disk file utility. MDI content-free root windows? Yecch. And my only comment about DOS is what can make 7 out of 8 megabytes of a computer's memory totally inaccessible without special software? ... Macintosh may in some ways have better ease-of-use than NT. I did see a copy of WindozeNT running -- it had the same cruddy Windoze3.x interface. And by the time that WindozeNT 4.0 comes out, Apple will be a *lot* further along with Copland. -- Loren Petrich Happiness is a fast Macintosh pet...@netcom.com And a fast train My home page: ftp://ftp.netcom.com/pub/pe/petrich/home.html Or ftp to ftp.netcom.com and go to /pub/pe/petrich
From: "H.J. Lu" <h...@gnu.ai.mit.edu> Subject: Re: NT will kill Unix in a year, OS war & Web revolution Date: 1996/02/28 Message-ID: <313488E8.167EB0E7@gnu.ai.mit.edu>#1/1 X-Deja-AN: 141541922 references: <4goa2q$9n5@shellx.best.com> <petrichDnE220.Dny@netcom.com> content-type: text/plain; charset=gb2312 organization: Ooops mime-version: 1.0 newsgroups: comp.os.ms-windows.nt.advocacy,comp.os.ms-windows.advocacy, comp.infosystems.www.advocacy,comp.os.linux.advocacy,comp.os.os2.advocacy, comp.os.amiga.advocacy,comp.sys.mac.advocacy,comp.unix.advocacy, comp.sys.next.advocacy x-mailer: Mozilla 2.0 (X11; I; SunOS 4.1.4 sun4c) > >I've always hated Unix because it's essentially an antiquated, chaotic > >character-mode environment with no serious GUI and poor compatibility > >among the zillion flavors. > > I agree with that assessment -- I've found UNIX *very* > user-hostile -- worse than other CLI OSes I've used, like VMS and even > VM/CMS (I still miss VMS after all these years). I found quite opposite. I can do almost whatever I want under Unix. But it is a pain under Windows95 when your hardware is slightly different than what Microsoft thought. H.J.