From: sip1@sam.spc.uchicago.edu (Timothy F. Sipples)
Newsgroups: comp.os.os2.misc
Subject: Microsoft Claims OS/2 Will Grow Faster Than Windows!
Summary: There are lies, damn lies, and Microsoft.
Message-ID: <1991Oct26.040251.27684@midway.uchicago.edu>
Date: 26 Oct 91 04:02:51 GMT
Sender: news@midway.uchicago.edu (NewsMistress)
Organization: SSPPCC, University of Chicago
Lines: 49


In the October 22, 1991, issue of the Wall Street Journal, Microsoft ran an
ad praising Windows.

Some interesting things were published, notably a bar graph entitled "Oper-
ating System Growth."  The source was International Data Corp., 1991.  Never
mind that Windows is not strictly an operating system and that DOS figures
were not included.

The "Worldwide installed base (in millions)" for both OS/2 and Windows was
listed for 1990 and projected for 1991 and 1992.  At the bottom of the
advertisement was the disclaimer, "OS/2 is a registered trademark licensed to
Microsoft Corporation."  [By whom?  :-)]

Here are the figures:

1990	Windows  9.0	OS/2  0.7
1991	Windows 14.9    OS/2  1.2
1992    Windows 23.2    OS/2  1.9

I dispute these figures below, but note the results when you convert these
to year-on-year percentages:

1991	Windows +65.6%	OS/2 +71.4%
1992	Windows +55.7%  OS/2 +58.3%

Amazing.  :-)

Now for the IDC figures.  Note that they seem to conflict with the now famous
claim made in the ad copy, that in slightly over a year since Windows 3.0's
introduction [in May, 1990] Microsoft has shipped over 6 million copies.
If you assume the IDC figures are year end, then Windows pre-3.0 accounted
for something like 10% of PC installations.  Now, _maybe_ if you throw in
the copies of Windows 1.x that shipped with those Zenith machines, and the
run time copies that shipped with Excel and Pagemaker, and didn't subtract
them out with Windows 3.0 upgrades you might get close to the numbers above.

The OS/2 numbers seem fairly realistic in 1990 and 1991.  However, the 1992
figure is extremely pessimistic.  Note that all existing OS/2 users (the 1.2
million projected for year end 1991) are eligible for (essentially) a
free OS/2 2.0 upgrade.  Thus IDC essentially predicts only 700,000 copies of
OS/2 2.0 shipped in 1992.  Never mind that IBM will likely bundle OS/2 2.0
with every PS/2 sold, and IBM is rapidly phasing out 286 and 8088/6 PS/2s.
Even if IBM does not sell a single nonbundled copy of OS/2 2.0 the number of
units sold will easily exceed 700,000 (based on the volume of PS/2 shipments).
And IDC doesn't seem to be subtracting out upgrades for Windows, but it does
appear to be for OS/2.

Anyway, I thought net readers might enjoy Microsoft's most rosy projections
-- which happen to show OS/2 growing faster than Windows.