IBM Predicts Warp, Its New OS/2 Line, Will Top Mac Sales

IBM Predicts Warp, Its New OS/2 Line, Will Top Mac Sales

At Star Trek-Style Unveiling, Actual Forecast Isn't Given, Though Executives `Beam'

By Bart Ziegler, Staff Reporter
Wall Street Journal

New York -- Oct 12, 1994 -- International Business Machines Corp. took the wraps off Warp yesterday, staging a glitzy unveiling and predicting sales of the new OS/2 software will surpass those of Apple Computer Inc.'s Macintosh next year.

That would put OS/2 Warp's sales at more than five million units in 1995 and make it the second-largest-selling personal-computer operating system, behind Microsoft Corp.'s Windows.

"We're very close to Macintosh now," said Lee Reiswig, president of IBM's Personal Software Products division. The Macintosh line's operating system is Apple's System 7 software.

An operating system is the underlying layer of software that provides a computer's basic functions.

Lehman Brothers Inc. forecasts that Apple will sell about five million Macintoshes next year, but Lehman analyst Don Young said IBM would be "hard pressed" to exceed that figure in OS/2 sales.

Mr. Reiswig wouldn't provide an actual forecast for OS/2 sales, claiming IBM didn't have one. "As long as we gain market share -- that's the key measure," he said. OS/2 has been gaining share on its chief rival, Microsoft's Windows, for the past few years -- though Windows has shipped about 10 times as many copies, for a total of more than 50 million.

IBM's long-term goal for OS/2 is about 25% of the market -- a "critical mass" of customers, Mr. Reiswig said -- compared with well under 10% currently. That could prompt more software developers to create programs that take advantage of OS/2's features, he said.

Hitting the five million mark may be helped by IBM's plans to "preload" Warp on the PCs it will sell next year, and the company already has signed up a handful of IBM-compatible rivals to do the same. But since such machines will also be loaded with Microsoft's Windows, it is unclear how many customers will actually end up using OS/2.

At yesterday's flashy debut, staged at a Broadway theater, IBM played up Warp's "Star Trek" origins -- warp is the measure of speed for the TV show's space ship. A videotaped appearance by Leonard Nimoy, who played Mr. Spock in the original series, was followed by an in-person cameo from Kate Mulgrew, who plays the captain on the show's next incarnation, "Star Trek Voyager."

Mr. Reiswig and several other IBMers even pretended to "beam" onto the stage, accompanied by smoke and strobe lights. It was an especially slick production, intended to emphasize the company's goal of moving beyond its corporate customer base to appeal to home PC users, small businesses and others. Warp will be promoted with a $50 million ad barrage through the year's end.

Most of the new commercials haven't yet been set, but Mr. Reiswig said that to make sure consumers get the message, some spots may use a rather un-IBM slogan: "It's time to get warped."